Bernie Vs. Trump (Forget Hillary)
If you watch the corporate news and read only the headlines you'd think the 2016 Presidential Election were about Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump. It isn't.
DISCLAIMER: This article was first posted on my Wordpress blog, American Revolt, and backdated for Substack to reflect its original posting. Only grammatical edits have been made.
The media, GOP, and DNC have all done such a terrible job at framing this election that they're reporting the wrong match-up. If you watch the news and read the headlines, you'd think the 2016 Presidential Election were about Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump.
It isn't and it never was.
Trump has refused to rule out the use of nuclear weapons on Europe, called Mexicans rapists, proposed the removal of 11 million illegal immigrants, wants police to patrol Muslim neighborhoods and outright ban the immigration of Muslims, has threatened Russia and China, opposes gay marriage rights, has made fun of the mentally handicapped, claims that China invented the climate change "hoax", publicly demeans women, promotes violence at his rallies... need I go on?
He's proven himself to be a xenophoic, racist, sexist bigot among other more vulgar expletives that I'll abstain from adding to the list. Whether these are genuine reflections of his true character are unknown.
AND YET as of today the latest CNN poll has Hillary at 42% and Trump at 40%. This is despite Time Warner, which owns CNN, being one of Hillary's largest campaign contributors. While that may be just one poll, it's hardly the first to show the two candidates being well within the margin of error.
Fox News (June 5-8, 2016):
NBC/WSJ (May 15-19, 2016):
ABC/Washington Post (May 23, 2016):
Hillary is even showing serious weakness in major swing-states! (SOURCE)
While Hillary does poll slightly ahead of Trump more often than not, the fact that they have been so close from various polling sources across the partisan divide is extremely ominous. In addition, Hillary has a history of starting campaigns at peak support and then maintains at best. She doesn't improve after her opening salvo. Instead, she relies on destroying her opponent or her opponent self-destructing.
Lawrence O'Donnell explains:
Here's another view, this one being from Real Clear Politics, that covers the entire election cycle thus far:
Remember too that Hillary was extremely well-known from the start. She was First Lady, a NY Senator, and Secretary of State. She had a high approval rating going into this race and was an overwhelming favorite to win. Trump is NOT a strong candidate. Hillary is just that pathetic.
Clinton vs. Trump
It is inexcusable for Hillary to fall within the margin of error of Trump so many times. By any objective measure, a remotely likable Democrat should be crushing him in the polls. She began her campaign with 53% and is now down to 45%. Her campaign has been nothing short of abysmal and she has only herself to blame.
Bernie Sanders, on the other hand, was not so well-known which put him at a distinct disadvantage. He didn't start to become a household name until his first primary debate in October 2015.
You'll notice that Trump had a small lead only briefly, which was prior to that debate appearance. Towards the end of 2015 there was one period where he tied with Bernie, but after that and for all of 2016 Sanders maintained a consistently strong lead:
And this is despite the media refusing to cover his numerous rallies across the country, even when 60,000 supporters showed up in Oakland, CA. But every major news network showed up when Hillary had a "rally of hundreds", also in CA, and aired her entire speech live. They have consistently aired Trump's speeches as well, giving the would-be-fascist over $2 billion in free airtime.
So despite the media blackout of Bernie Sanders, despite how unknown he was at the start of the campaign, despite accepting zero campaign donations from corporations and Super PACS, despite the DNC rigging of the primary, Bernie Sanders still maintains nearly triple the lead over Donald Trump as compared to Hillary Clinton. This is nothing short of remarkable.
Now imagine if the media had actually given Bernie the time of day. And he had Super PAC money to spend on TV ads. And the biased backing of the DNC.
Hillary's current near-tie with Trump is also of great concern because this is after she was endorsed by both President Obama and (former) progressive-leader Senator Warren. Warren is especially significant because her policies mirrored that of Bernie Sanders and was an outspoken critic of Hillary Clinton. If Bernie is the grandfather of modern day progressivism, Warren is (or rather was) the grandmother.
Gaining the support of Warren was supposed to help rally Bernie-supporters to join Hillary. And it largely did, but progressives were outraged enough that Hillary's poll numbers have dipped slightly lower as a result. And rightfully so.
Hillary is out of Hail Mary's at this point. There is no one left to endorse her that could significantly impact her poll numbers. The only thing she can do at this point is to change her policies and adopt a more progressive platform even if rhetoric only. But she won’t even do that. The DNC recently finalized their platform after meeting with Clinton and Sanders surrogates and these were the results:
Support for a single-payer healthcare system? REJECTED
An end to fracking? REJECTED
Ending the occupation of Israel in Palestine? REJECTED
$15 minimum wage? REJECTED
Opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)? REJECTED
Support for a tax on carbon? REJECTED
Tuition free public college? REJECTED
The Hillary camp's refusal to compromise with the Bernie crowd on any major policy issue makes it all but impossible to win enough support from his followers. And with the Democratic Platform already in stone there's no going back.
Rather than unify the Party, which could have won her enough support to cement a permanent lead over Trump, Hillary has instead embraced stubborn arrogance. She truly believes herself to be unstoppable, even though the FBI is still investigating her for multiple felonies. Pretending that isn’t going on will only backfire.
With no major figures left to endorse her and with no further changes to her policies and the Democratic platform, she now must sell herself. That's all she has left to play with. Unfortunately, she isn't well-liked. Every polling source shows her with record low favorability ratings. In fact, she's the second most disliked candidate to run for President in history, second only to… Donald Trump!
What can Hillary do to improve her poll numbers? The answer is simple. Nothing. She's exhausted every available resource. No more endorsements, no more policy changes. All she can bank on now is being the lesser of two evils, which isn't a winning strategy.
Recall that John Kasich, one of the lowest polling Republican candidates, was consistently beating Hillary Clinton in national polls with an overall average lead of 7.4 points. If anyone else but Trump (or Ted Cruz) had gotten the Republican nomination she would lose by a landslide in the general election. Liberals can deny it all day, but this is an objective fact based on all available statistics.
One final point:
Where did Hillary excel best during the primaries against Bernie? Red states. Where do Republicans win in general elections? Red states. Her strongest regions of support will go to Trump. She'd lose.
Unless the Democrats want to hand over the election to the Republicans the superdelegates have no choice but to swing their support to Bernie Sanders and nominate him for President of the United States.
Sanders already has 45% of the pledged delegates and polls higher than Trump by a wide margin, so it would be a defensible move to make. The superdelegate was designed to select the most viable candidate. If they do their job, as undemocratic as that job may be, then they would tilt the nomination to Sanders.
And if that happens then Democrats would be guaranteed to win the White House and ensure the future viability of their political party by reestablishing themselves as the Party of the People. If they don't they will not only lose the election but permanently alienate a sizable number of voters ages 45 and under who had overwhelming enthusiasm for Bernie Sanders.
So have a sense of self-preservation, Democrats. Do what politicians do best.